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All Blacks are still hard to beat but their aura and innovation has gone and there’s no clear path back to the top


Big port towns do not stay stuck in the past. The Cape of Good Hope was never fixed in an era or epoch.

History, like the sea, smashes into orthodoxy and doctrine along with transient travelers and dreamers on shore leave who never leave but do not lose their ties from whence they came and what they lost or sought.

Spice or gold, water or wood, mastering the map or driven by antiquated ides of destiny: this spiny peninsula adorned by strange flowers, fed by rivulets of mist, and the refuge of height above marshes and the march of far flung rivalries.

Some of the first men to stand up lived not far from what was a dual jutting rock island split from Africa by a shallow strait now known as the sandy Cape Flats where life is lived on the edge still: one of the earth’s most dangerous places sprawled in an arc between the two ocean currents which used to submerge it.

Over the last six centuries or so an often bitter contest was waged for control of the Cape by traders and sailors and crowns and companies from Lisbon, Rotterdam and Bristol, and now is carried on by realtors who calibrate today’s most desirable estates, roughly correlated with how close one lives to the mountains: a rule of thumb is the view of the rump of Table Mountain should be larger than your thumb, but nothing is ever simple or fair in the Fairest Cape.

All Blacks dejected after a try to Malcolm Marx. (Photo by Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

For as long as I knew and played rugby in Cape Town and joined the narrow queues into Newlands when Western Province or South Africa faced Kiwi tourists we had an asterisk to consider: a deeply held support of the All Blacks by a core group of Capetonians who were making a statement against a party, a system, then fig leaves, slow change, and finally, after time had washed away several keys to their refusal to back the Boks, merely a cry of independence, uniqueness, attachment to old scores unsettled and the fanaticism of how we see the teams we grow to love.

The oddity of a sizable contingent cheering when a South Island hog hunting camo-wearing Crusader lad smashes wee super hero Cheslin Kolbe or Cape Flats legend Damian Willemse is not lost on anyone, but I have always wondered about the role in this rugby ‘protest’ of the All Blacks’ phenomenal success on the scoreboard: would it wane if the Boks were to erode that superiority?

The early indication from Round 4 of the 2024 Rugby Championship is yes. The Boks are definitely a cut above the All Black; together with societal progress this has ebbed local Cape support for the Kiwis.

The easy walk from the Mouille Point lighthouse from the Sea Point side or the teeming Waterfront to the gleaming DHL Stadium is one of the best strolls in rugby: the table is spread and set for a feast under the clouded mountain and the ocean booms nearby, amid the dizzying diversity of Cape Town, the alpha and omega of diversity in the land.

The dearth of All Black gear in the procession was replicated in the seats as anthems began. The thought came to mind: ‘maybe the peak of Cape Crusader support is in the past.’

Gone is the aura of inevitability. Gone is the innovation. Besides maul defence, what new tactic or plan have the All Blacks taught the world in the last five years?

A New Zealand Test side is still hard to beat, but merely plays good, fundamental rugby devoid of tricks.

Razor Robertson does not have magic answers to Ian Foster’s dilemmas and the battle rugby faces in New Zealand to retain top talent on shore and in Union. The All Blacks have lost more regularly in the last five years than ever before, with wins over South Africa, Ireland and France (let alone Argentina) no longer expected as as a matter of right or course, and lately, old truisms have suffered a beating too: namely that the All Blacks finish the stronger in the last quarter than any other team. Three times in the last four versus the Boks: scoreless.

All Black Head Coach Scott Robertson talks to the press following the International Test Match between New Zealand All Blacks and England at Forsyth Barr Stadium on July 06, 2024 in Dunedin, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison - RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

(Photo by Joe Allison – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

The rule against using foreign-based players robs Razor of late game managers like Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith and it seems this group cannot win the biggest Tests without them: either by putting a 10-point late lead to bed in Johannesburg or stopping an inexorable Bok comeback in Cape Town.

The result is an oddity: the All Blacks being the underdog in Cape Town. After anthems, the haka was met with rabid silence by the capacity crowd, in stark contrast to how the other Test stadia in South Africa handle it: this was not a lull. If anything, the silencing of the jeers (‘ole, ole, ole, ole, ole’ was hushed) made the spectacle more menacing both ways. Veteran South African commentator Matt Pearce urged this approach on his social media leading into the Test and it held sway.

The first twenty minutes was as fierce as those in the Irish Tests in July. But the last twenty: Ireland is harder to put away if they have a sniff. Why?

A gradual erosion of a fitness edge, parity in skills, a lack of novelty, and a kind of insularity from the shifting currents of rugby around the world.

The argument had been: the big Boks will be run around by Australia and New Zealand and tire by the last quarter, and leak tries because of not facing Super Rugby’s speedy attacks. The stated issue now: will the planned old rivalry tours revive Kiwi fortunes just in time to make up for the loss of Saffa club physicality?

Also, is conversance with all the various leagues’ styles and officiating a strength the Boks have over isolated New Zealand?

The All Black trophy cabinet is for the third time in this century bare but more alarmingly than before, when Australia (in the John Eales era) and then South Africa (in the John Smit era) gained brief ascendancies, there is no clear path back to the top. Australian rugby was and maybe still is (if the Argentinian arse whipping is no anomaly) a basket case; this is the partner New Zealand is locked with in an uneven relationship with far too many similarities to spur each other to innovation.

Will either have the impetus to find bold approaches to new fan bases and find the best ways to both return to the top three in the world or will New Zealand find a new slot toggling between two and four and an uncertain future beyond a decade as the French leagues, the URC and other richer enterprises rise?

As I stood (because Capetonians do not shout at anyone to sit) and watched the Boks roar back with an almost predictable fervour and fire in the last stanza, I found myself thinking of two old Tests I attended live: 2015’s semifinal at Twickers, in the year when Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermeulen, Handre Pollard, Damian de Allende, Jesse Kriel and Willie le Roux were young and undone by the belief and mastery of Dan Carter’s champions. The other one in 2018 in Wellington when I felt lucky as Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett mismanaged their way to a loss.

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The tables have turned; the table only allows Argentina and South Africa to win the Championship.

Will 2025 be the All Blacks’ 2010: clinical operations to return to the top? Or are we watching a gentle decline, like an empire which cedes territory and no longer wins tribute by fear but must battle like the rest of nations?

The stands were confident as the lineout formed in one last attacking chance for the visitors around seven in the dying light under Lions Head.

No noise issued from the scattered fans in black. Etzebeth lifted du Toit higher than any prop can lift Tupou Va’ai, nicked the throw, and a Bok lock nobody in New Zealand knew last year gathered it, and kicked it into the press box. The party did not stop until Sunday morning. Who will stop this party, 17 of the last 19 Tests and only the luck of the Irish maul and drop goal marring it?

It should be New Zealand.

The All Blacks almost won the World Cup last year and almost knocked off the champions twice at home.

But Almost Blacks were never the team I grew up watching with awe.

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