The Grand Final. The Decider. The Big Dance. The Pointy End. Crunch Time. The Acid Test. Old Faithful. Swing Time. Sunday Bloody Sunday. WS Walcott’s Medicine Show.
Yes, the NRL Grand Final goes by many names, but whatever you call it, it is undeniably the biggest day on the rugby league calendar except for all three State of Origin games, the opening round in Las Vegas, and Peter Vlandys’ bi-monthly hair-colouring appointment.
This grand final is a particularly intriguing one due to the general uncertainty about the likely result, not to mention how thrilled all rugby league fans are to see these two most universally beloved clubs contesting it.
In fact this is could be one of the most tantalising deciders we’ve seen since the NRL completely ruined everything by putting them on at night.
But getting down to the nitty-gritty, what IS likely to happen, and where WILL the game be won and lost?
Let’s run through a few of the most crucial factors affecting this Sunday’s GF, or as it is often called, “Happy Ball Day”.
1. The Refereeing
As we all know – or at least, as the referees know – the referee is the most important person on any football field. How the ref refs, and how the teams handle the ref, could be crucial, unless you’re one of the 90% of rugby league fans who believes that the NRL has already instructed the referee which team is to win, and the only suspense is in finding out who it is.
Ivan Cleary has already made an impassioned plea for referees to “understand what we’re trying to do”, and let’s hope it gets through. Too many times this year, Penrith have been penalised by refs with a ridiculously pedantic obsession with “the rules” and not a thought for what the Panthers are trying to do.
It’d be terrible if the grand final was also marred by this lack of understanding. Fingers crossed we see a calm, in-control referee combining well with the Penrith players to get the right outcome.
For Melbourne’s part, losing Nelson Asofa-Solomona is a bitter blow, but more to the point, raises some worrying questions about their treatment by referees. There is every chance that Penrith’s players will, like Lindsay Collins, run directly at Storm tacklers, unfairly exposing them to the possibility of tackling high.
Hopefully the referee will be on to this and will penalise any Panther who deliberately gets himself tackled – although given that the referee will also be trying to understand what Penrith are trying to do, it could be a bit of a lottery.
2. Nathan Cleary’s shoulder
Much fretting has been done over the shoulder of Nathan Cleary, which was the part of his body his mother held him by when dipping him in the River Styx, thus rendering it vulnerable.
The fragile state of the shoulder worries many Penrith supporters, although I don’t see why it should. Watching Cleary in action, he hardly ever uses his shoulders. He catches and passes with his hands, he runs and kicks with his feet.
He doesn’t actually need his shoulder at all, so let’s hope he doesn’t use it as an excuse. After all, Cooper Cronk won a premiership without one.
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
3. Storm shorts
It has become increasingly clear that this Melbourne team has virtually no weaknesses, but one area must be of concern to Craig Bellamy: his players’ inability to keep their pants up.
Repeated indecent exposure by Storm players has shown Cleary’s men what they need to target: purple waistbands.
If they do this effectively, the cumulative embarrassment, not to mention the draught, felt by the Storm could be crippling.
4. The coaching battle
This game is very much a clash of contrasting coaching styles. On the one hand you have Craig Bellamy, who motivates his men by making them fear physical violence.
On the other, you have Ivan Cleary, who favours a more subtle psychological approach based on guilt-tripping. Cleary will be determined to cement his place in history, while Bellamy will be determined to prevent every vein in his head bursting at once.
As far as strategy and tactics go, both coaches favour a method of controlling the ruck known technically as “ignoring the rules”, which is as entertaining as it is shameless. Bellamy will instruct his players to target Penrith’s undersized back three with high kicks, and Cleary will instruct his players to target Nick Meaney, just in general. It will be fascinating to see what tactical moves the coaches pull as the game goes on, especially as there is almost no chance either of them will pull any.
5. The legacy
This is a real defining moment for both teams. Whoever wins will rightfully be able to call themselves one of the greatest teams of all time. Whoever loses will be able to do pretty much the same.
So stakes are high. After this match the chance to etch their names in history will be lost until 2025 when they’ll probably still be much better than everyone else, but that is months away.
If Melbourne go down, there is a real chance they will be seen as the great underachievers. The Storm could have won many more premierships than they actually did, were it not for failure at crucial moments, Cronk’s scapula, Andrew Fifita, the strange disappearance of all record of the years 2006-2009, etc. The memory of lost grand finals burns in Storm supporter’s minds, and another one here could seriously damage Melbourne’s reputation as the heartland of rugby league.
Penrith, on the other hand, have the opportunity to go down in history as one of the most hated groups of young men ever to live, by winning their fourth premiership in a row.
This is rarefied air, especially in the modern era when the NRL has put rules in place to ensure everyone continues pretending they care about having an equal competition. It’s also an important moment for the Panthers as after this year they will say goodbye to Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and – sure, let’s include him too – Sunia Turuva.
How long can Penrith keep winning while losing top-line players? Literally forever? Probably.
Perhaps the player for whom the question of legacy looms largest is Nathan Cleary himself. Already considered by all serious pundits the greatest genius the world has ever seen, victory in Sunday’s game will be the final achievement required for the NRL to institute an honour one level above Immortal just for Cleary.
Craig Bellamy (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
6. The pre-game entertainment
In a very real sense, the grand final itself is merely an excuse for the NRL to bring the very best in quality musical performance to a wider audience. This year’s pre-game show will be performed by The Kid Laroi, who knows Justin Bieber personally.
The quality of his performance is of an importance second only to what players’ girlfriends wear to the Dally M, and the NRL is praying that the Kid delivers a gig of epic proportions that consolidates its place as the pre-eminent concert promoter in Australia.
Such are the key issues, but you can never really predict what narratives a grand final throws up. Who will be the unsung hero who makes the clutch play at a vital moment? Who will the superstar who disappoints everyone?
Who will be the stupidest commentator in the box? Who will provoke Cameron Munster into an idiotic failure of discipline? It’s all yet to be decided, which is what makes it so exciting.
As for myself, I would never presume to make a prediction of a winner: this one is genuinely too close to call. But even in a grand final the old wisdom holds true: it’s not whether you win or lose, it’s what excuses you make. And come Sunday night we’re going to be making some massive ones.