Deal details: Baltimore Orioles acquire RHP Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Matthew Etzel, infielder/outfielder Mac Horvath and RHP Jackson Baumeister
Zach Eflin has been down a bit this year from his breakthrough season in 2023, but the addition of the right-hander still gives the Orioles exactly what they need: an above-average starter who can give them some innings because he’s efficient.
Eflin has elite control, with the second-best walk rate among qualifying starters this year, behind the Seattle Mariners’ George Kirby, who could put his fastball on FDR’s nostril on a dime sitting in the strike zone. It’s also the lowest walk rate of Eflin’s career, the second straight year he’s cut it to a career-best figure.
That strike-throwing is a big part of how Eflin has been successful even in years when his strikeout rate is down, as it is this year (18.9 percent) from 2023 (26.5 percent). He limits base runners and isn’t homer-prone, so although he allows more balls in play than the typical starter of his caliber, they don’t amount to as much damage.
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Eflin’s stuff has slipped a little this year, which likely explains at least some of the reduced strikeout rate. He has lost a little velocity and movement on several of his pitches, notably his cutter, so he’s giving up more hard contact and getting fewer groundballs.
He’s also had much worse results on his curveball, generally his best pitch, even though it hasn’t changed at all — it seems to be the same pitch it was in 2023 by every measure, yet it’s gone from being a plus-10 run pitch last year to minus-6 this year. It’s the worst showing on his curveball since he was a reliever for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017, when it wasn’t a plus pitch yet, and I’m inclined to think this is the fluky part of Eflin’s story.
The Orioles have had a tough time replacing Kyle Bradish since he landed on the injured list. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
The Orioles have been scrambling to fill their rotation since Kyle Bradish hit the injured list after his June 14 start. They removed Cole Irvin from the rotation at the end of June, Cade Povich has struggled in six starts, Chayce McDermott’s debut wasn’t great, and everyone else who’s made a start for the Orioles this year is either in the rotation or on the 60-day injured list. Even the version of Eflin we’ve seen in 2024 is an upgrade and gives them a better option to start a third playoff game than Dean Kremer or the surprising Albert Suárez.
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This is a light return for a year-plus of Eflin, given he was one of the best pitchers in the American League last year and at least some of his decline this year is just random.
The Rays get three prospects back, none of whom projects to a regular role, led by outfielder Matthew Etzel, who at least has the physical ability to end up exceeding that projection.
Etzel is big and strong, but he hits tiny, with a rinky-dink swing from a narrow setup that takes all of his strength and throws it in the trash. Since a promotion to Double A, he’s slugging .391 with just eight extra-base hits in 32 games. He needs a swing overhaul to get to some in-game power. Right now, he’s a 60 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with solid plate discipline but too little impact with the bat to be more than a fourth outfielder. We want the thump.
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Right-hander Jackson Baumeister works mostly with two pitches — a fastball and curveball — with 40 command and already has some issues with lefties because he barely uses his changeup. The delivery’s fine, and he also has a slider that could be a weapon, but hitters seem to pick up the ball well and he has barely gotten hitters to chase pitches out of the zone this year. To stick as a starter, he needs a third pitch for lefties, better command/control and perhaps more deception. It’s a lot to ask.
Utility player Mac Horvath has been disappointing in his first year in pro ball, showing none of the power that made him an intriguing bet in the second round in 2023 out of North Carolina. Horvath has hit .233/.328/.417 in his age-22 season (he just turned 23) in High A, a league that shouldn’t be that much of a challenge for him as an ACC product. He’s hit with a lot of moderate contact and not much of a two-strike approach.
There are some positive signs — he’s not striking out or whiffing excessively, and he only expands the zone too much when he gets to two strikes — but his value was always going to be in the bat, and it hasn’t materialized. He seems like a much bigger challenge for the Rays’ player development group than Etzel given their tools and performances to date.
(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)